CLS
CLSManufacturing

Celestica Inc.

NYSE · Electronics Manufacturing Services

Role

The Builder


"The Picks & Shovels AI Play"

Celestica is the construction company — it physically builds the servers and data center hardware that AI runs on. Regardless of which AI model wins, they all need Celestica's hardware.

Investment Thesis

A 'picks and shovels' momentum play on the explosive build-out of AI data center infrastructure. As a key manufacturer of high-performance servers, storage, and networking hardware for hyperscalers, it is a direct beneficiary of the AI gold rush. This is a higher-risk, higher-reward investment tied to the physical infrastructure of AI.

The Analogy

The construction company that builds the skyscraper. While Cadence and Synopsys design the chips, Celestica builds the physical infrastructure those chips power.

Key Metrics

Revenue Growth
+28%FY2025
2026 Guidance
$17BRevenue target
Stock Performance
+220%In 2025
P/E Ratio
~39xLower than EDA peers
Key Customer
Google TPUAI hardware partner
Business Model
EMS + HPSManufacturing & Platforms

Revenue History (USD Billions)

202320242025$0B$4B$8B$12B$16B

Competitive Advantages

  • +Direct beneficiary of hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending (Google, Microsoft, Amazon)
  • +Key manufacturing partner for Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) AI systems
  • +Lower P/E (~39x) relative to high growth rate suggests relative value
  • +Hardware Platform Solutions (HPS) segment growing rapidly
  • +Diversified across servers, storage, and networking hardware

Key Risks

  • Stock up 220% in 2025 — highly vulnerable to pullbacks if growth slows
  • Lower margins than software companies — manufacturing is capital intensive
  • Concentration risk with hyperscaler customers
  • Sensitive to AI infrastructure spending cycles
Bear Case ReadingCitrini Research · Feb 22, 2026

The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis

"Hyperscaler capex freezes ripple through the supply chain. EMS and ODM manufacturers see order cancellations as cloud giants pause infrastructure buildouts to reassess AI ROI."

A scenario analysis exploring how AI's success could paradoxically trigger an enterprise capex freeze. As a contract manufacturer whose revenue is directly tied to hyperscaler infrastructure spending (Microsoft, Google, Amazon), Celestica is acutely exposed to any pause or reversal in AI data center buildouts — the very tailwind driving its current growth.

Read Full Article →
Aggressive Growth

Aggressive Growth — the highest-risk, highest-reward momentum play of the three

Research Files on Record

📄 Investment Analysis: CLS vs. CDNS vs. SNPS in the AI Era📄 Celestica vs. Cadence and Synopsys: A Comparative Analysis